gaming it out

I. Best-case scenario
Donald Trump is elected president in November. An Iranian proxy, whether Houthi, Hezbollah, or Iraqi Shi'ite militia, attacks an American naval vessel in the Persian Gulf. Trump orders a brutal retaliation that decimates the Iranian oil industry in Bandar Abbas. Iran, humiliated, pulls back its military offensive capabilities and redirects its dwindling state resources to reduce the likelihood of popular revolt. The immediate military threat to Israel subsides, operations wind down in Gaza, and Israeli politics returns to its normal acrid toxicity.

II. Worst-case scenario
Kamala Harris is appointed president in November. Sweeping changes are implemented in the State Department under new policy directives that fulfill race / gender quotas, leading to a "coalition of the oppressed" approach to international affairs coupled with a severe competence deficit. Iran notes that the United States is no longer interested in nor capable of maintaining the liberal international world order. Israel continues to maintain its exclusively defensive posture, fighting an expensive war of attrition with no superpower backing. Capital flight and messianic zealotry trigger a doom spiral, leading the country down a lonely path of interminable ethnic violence and dysfunction.

III. Most likely scenario
Donald Trump is elected president in November. The isolationist wing of the Republican party dominates State Department appointments over the liberal interventionists. Iran continues to pursue its long-term strategy of death by attrition, calculating that the US will not intervene. Israel, isolated diplomatically and fearing existential risk, carries out a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities with tacit but unenthusiastic American support, together with additional targeted assassinations. Hezbollah retaliates with a barrage of precision and long-range missiles, destroying significant military and civilian infrastructure throughout Israel and resulting in mass casualties. IDF reservists are stretched to their limits as the Israeli economy sputters along with severe constraints.